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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award follows a simple formula. It commonly functions as a type of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your franchise in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a direct path: the coach who engineered the most dramatic resurgence receives the award. In practice, it sparks an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or simply the greatest upset.

However the current competition is fundamentally unique. The group of nominees is remarkably strong. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with reigning division winners falling away and longtime underperformers rising in unison. During an typical year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in such a turbulent and entertaining season, he's facing five other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the projected vote should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been given the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly ability. Since Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained dominance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the system rather than freelancing. It is an offense constructed entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been able to spin magic out of nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually every gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the building with the level of hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the top name on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme genius but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a typical year, he would be the overwhelming favorite. But the current isn't a typical season!

The area where Johnson's case comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is real. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained winning. However Johnson comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has masterminded a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has excelled at the off-field aspects, which wasn't a given after his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect staff mix of new ideas and experience, Coen bet on newbies. From the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

Following an initial strong start, there was a risk that the season would go off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the team stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year argument has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only one spot ahead of peers.

Still