Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has something to learn from the other's positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
