Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis caused by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, political struggles are fought: optimistic declarations are delivered from multiple capitals. Immense energy is allocated on containing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from across the border, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles flew past – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably supplied through partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a automatic firearm fired at a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its target.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: seven people killed, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, certainly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership works based on a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to relinquish the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does minimal to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the situation will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: personal goals to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new plans based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.
